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Jewell Loyd of the Seattle Storm. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

WNBA best bets: Expert picks, player props, prediction for Fri. 5/17

Originally posted on Action Network | Last updated 5/17/24

It's a Friday night doubleheader in the WNBA as the Connecticut Sun play host to the Washington Mystics and the new-look Seattle Storm make their way to Minnesota to face the Lynx. From a moneyline pick to a player prop, our experts dive into what bets you should make on tonight's showdown.

Let's hop into our WNBA best bets and expert picks for Friday, May 17.

Mystics vs. Sun

Friday, May 17, 7:30 p.m. ET, ION
Mystics Moneyline (BetMGM)

By Jim Turvey

The Mystics came into the season tied for the lowest regular season win total at most books. The Sun, on the other hand, were in the WNBA semifinals last season and were typically around fourth in the league by projected win totals. As a result, they as double-digit favorites, and a -700 moneyline favorite on Friday when they host Washington.

So why the Washington love? For one, the Mystics team win over and the Sun team win under were both leans I had, but even more so, I'm going to be eyeing this Mystics team on long moneylines throughout the season.

Washington lost their season opener, but I thought there was a lot to love from the game. Before the season I wrote about my dream for this Mystics team being a spread offense where their shooters launched threes with reckless abandon. Well in their first game, they launched 32 threes and were within one of the Liberty (the team that beat the Sun to get to the Finals) with 16 seconds to play.

And that was with hitting only 10 of those 32 threes. A few more good bounces, and they had a real chance to cash the potential +490 moneyline.

We get a similar price on Friday, and yes it is against one of the best three-point defenses, but it's also a Sun team that also doesn't take many threes. A +500 underdog who could potentially double the three-point attempts of the favorite is the exact way I'm going to look for Mystics moneylines throughout the season.

I lean to the points on the spread, but with the variance central to the cap, I much prefer the moneyline.

Pick: Mystics Moneyline

Storm vs. Lynx

Friday, May 17, 9:30 p.m. ET, ION
Jewell Loyd under 21.5 points (DraftKings)

By Maltman

Last year, Jewell Loyd had to do it all. She was the only real offensive option on her team, and it led to her having a 33% usage rating and leading the league in scoring.

Now she has help, and it means more distributing but also a lower usage, more similar to how it was when she used to play with Breanna Stewart. In her first game, her usage dropped to 27%, and I think it will continue to go down.

This number is still too high and based off her scoring last season, and not every previous year, when she never averaged over 20 points per game. Betting .25u on Loyd under 21.5 points at -115 on Draftkings (would bet down to under 20.5).